Bitcoin (BTC) price has been consolidating within a roughly $5,800 range since Jan. 16 as the $110,000 mark remains elusive. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Bitstamp shows that BTC price oscillates within a tight range between $106,150 and $99,700.

Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Key reasons why Bitcoin price remains stuck today include:

  • Uncertainty over the Fed’s interest rate decision later today.

  • Weakness in spot retail demand for Bitcoin above $100,000.

  • Bitcoin price faces immediate overhead resistance at $103,000.

Uncertainty surrounding 1st 2025 FOMC meeting

One significant factor contributing to Bitcoin’s current price stagnation is the anticipation and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision expected on Jan. 29. 

Things to know:

  • Fed’s policies profoundly impact financial markets globally, including cryptocurrencies. 

  • An increase in interest rates typically leads to a stronger dollar, as higher rates attract investors looking for better returns on dollar-denominated assets. 

  •  A strong dollar inversely affects Bitcoin’s price, as it becomes relatively more expensive for investors using other currencies. 

  • Conversely, if the Fed signals no change or a dovish approach, it might bolster Bitcoin’s value, as lower interest rates encourage investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. 

  • Traders expect that the central bank will keep the Federal funds rate steady at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

  • The possibility of interest rates remaining the same at the Fed’s Jan. 29 meeting now stands at a 99.5% chance, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis

Fed target rate probabilities for Jan. 29 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

  • Zooming out, futures markets are not pricing in a quarter-point reduction until June, followed by one more by the end of the year.

  • Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to decreased trading volumes and a lack of clear price direction for Bitcoin.

Lack of retail interest

Bitcoin’s whipsaw price action over the last two weeks can be partly attributed to weakness in retail demand, as pointed out by Bitcoin analyst Charlie.

Things to know:

  • Bitcoin’s 30D change in retail investor demand provides insight into the current activity of existing and new retail investors.

  • This indicator has dropped from a high of 31.75% on Dec. 15 to -13%. at the time of writing.

  • These levels were last seen in May 2021, when Bitcoin consolidated between $31,600 and $40,000. 

Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis

Bitcoin retail investor demand 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuant

  • A negative 30D change in retail investor demand values suggests a net sell-side pressure, suggesting that the market is experiencing a sell-side bias.

  • Demand in the spot market would recover once the metric crosses the zero line into the positive region. 

  • If this happens, Bitcoin could potentially move out of consolidation to clear the $106,150 and $109,000 supplier congestion zone and enter price discovery.

Related: Bitcoin drop under $75K before April has under 10% chance: Analyst

Bitcoin price needs to reclaim $103,000

On Jan. 27, Bitcoin price fell below the critical support provided by the $103,000 psychological level as markets sold off following the DeepSeek AI launch

Key levels to watch:

  • BTC’s price is currently fighting to reclaim the said level, as it trades at $102,627 at the time of writing.

  • Reclaiming the $103,000 level would mean Bitcoin is “game on again,” said popular Bitcoin analyst Mark Cullen. 

  • Cullen explains that until Bitcoin bulls reclaim the said level,  BTC price could “test lower” and probably drop to Jan. 27 lows below $98,000.

Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis

BTC/USD chart. Source: Mark Cullen

  • The drop below $103,000 saw Bitcoin whales buying into a block of ask liquidity below this level, resulting in “price suppression on BTC”, according to FireCharts shared by trading resource Material Indicators. 

    The market data provider said:

“There is a new bid ladder stretched from $95.5k up to $101.5k, which makes me wonder if someone is trying to push the price lower to get some of those bids filled.”

Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Market Analysis

Bitcoin Firecharts. Source: Material Indicators

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.